The Big Bad World.....

In the last week, I've read a number of opinions and articles reflecting on the role of the U.S in today's world and the future. Two pieces in particular resonated with me. One article (thank you John K!) dealt with the geo-political realities and the "Grand Strategy" of US administrations, Obama's in particular. George Friedman's piece on "Obama and the U.S Strategy of Buying Time" made me think about graduate school and the discussions we had on realism versus interdependence and the implications for empires, alliances, and world peace. The second article "The Modest Superpower" reflects on the roles of Europe and the US in light of the ongoing financial crisis and economic downturn.

The first article's main thrust is that the US tries (for good reason, according to the author) to stall for time before taking action. The second article concludes that Europe may be the next Superpower, at least economically, if not militarily. To me, these two articles complement each other and illustrate the advantages and dangers of the "wait and see" approach.

I am more inclined to side with the first article's approach, although that makes me sound like an isolationist perhaps, which I most assuredly do not see myself as. The second article, while I agree with the observations and implications, evokes a "where did we hear that before?" response in me. As I recall those graduate school days, it was Japan set to inevitably unseat the mighty American economic machine. But Paul Kennedy's "The Rise and Fall of Great Powers" put economic power and military might in perspective for me then, as it does now. Although he did forecast the fall of Pax Americana....

What did I conclude, you might ask? That it is a big bad world out there; that nothing is for certain; and that I am hopeful, dare I say optimistic, about the changes of the US. To paraphrase Samuel Clemens: "the reports of our demise are greatly exaggerated."

Global Climate Change -- we are our own worst enemy

I’ve been quiet on the merits of global climate change for a while, but not because I changed my mind about the validity of that claim, nor about my belief that human activity plays a role in the warming trend. It seems to me that a global warming trend will significantly alter the geo-political reality and place enormous long term pressure on the ability of governments to effectively deal with the effects of resettlement, changing sea levels, and other global impacts. I have not bothered to engage or comment on the various nay-sayers that use cherry-picked data to “proof” their point, because, frankly, what does my opinion really account for or matter.

But it seems the Associated Press did take notice and wanted to get to the bottom of the global cooling trend claim. An AP Science Writer article on today’s MSNBC website details a “blind” analysis by independent statisticians and concludes that the data shows a continued global warming trend. Unfortunately, the article itself does fall in the same trap it accuses the nay-sayers of – in the end, the author cherry-picks scientists and data to make inflammatory predictions about near-term trends. In this case, the dim-witted author regurgitates a claim that next year’s El Nino will produce a record breaking 2010 so that “a cooling trend will never be talked about again.” He should have left well-enough alone!!!

The Joys of International Travel.....a cautionary tale

Earlier this summer, we packed up the whole family to attend my parents 50th wedding anniversary in the ol' country. Now I have had a passport (unlike a certain vice-presidential candidate) for most of my life as has my wife and our kids. We travel fairly regularly outside of the US and keep our passports current.

Before the trip, I was well aware of the expiration date on my passport, which was just about 3 months after we were planning to return back from the trip. You see where this is heading? I checked in with the airline the night before the trip and input all our passport information into the reservation system, printed the boarding passes and headed off to the airport about 3 hours prior to the departure time, ready to begin the domestic connection portion for the international (night) flight.

Well, not so fast. Upon having checked our luggage, the airline employee decided that I was NOT allowed to take the flight!

So there we were at the airport, bags checked, ready to go to a "must attend" event in 3 days (this being Thursday afternoon and the party being Sunday)and I am out of luck. Now what do I do?

First the good news. After learning where I needed to go to get something done with a valid passport that had more than 3 months of time remaining, the Boston State Department office was as helpful as they could have been. It took a lot of time waiting in lines, but the actual time to get a brand new passport and walk out of the door was less than 90 minutes from handing in the completed paperwork to passport in hand. I was very impressed.

Of course the bad news was that I missed the flight, but I was able to get a 24 hour delay and repeat the whole thing (boarding included) the next day and the party went off without further incident. But the lesson I had to learn the hard way should be a tale of caution for all international travelers.

The bottomline is that the expiration date on your passport is a bit like the "sell by" date on the milk....it may be good, it may not be. Apparently each country gets to set its own requirements for visiting passports and the time a passport needs to be valid after the expected trip return date varies widely (from 9 months to nothing).

So I now will forever heed the advice of the young lady who was the first State Department employee to hear my plea -- renew your passport when it is within a year of expiration. The State Department passport office does NOT work on weekends. Had this happened to me 26 hours later, I would have missed the one event my parents had been looking forward to for 25 years!

For more information about passports, the State Department's International Travel section maintains a "by country" listing of the requirements. General passport application procedures can be found here.

The State of Democracy and Public Interest

My friend and colleague at The Right Side of Lowell blogged (uncharacteristically brief) about the MA vote to allow the Governor to appoint an interim US Senator. Earlier he had asked about the lack of outrage in reference to the impending decision to change the law/rules. Frankly, at the time, I didn’t think the issue rose to the level where moral outrage was warranted or worth the energy. However, he indirectly does raise a point. Where does the slippery slope of democratic value deterioration start and when does the “public interest” become an afterthought in the drive of the political elite for self-preservation?

I ran across an article in one of the leading Dutch newspapers, het NRC Handelsblad, lamenting the lack of political will to define “public interest” and the resultant deterioration of democratic values. One particular phrase resonated with me. The author concludes that for a host of reasons, governing in the Netherlands is now “incident-driven” with “symptoms of ADHD.”

That made me wonder where we in America are on that spectrum? Are our democratic values secure or compromised? Is the tone of political discourse conducive to sound decision making , or are we sliding toward a system where the vocal minority overshadows the true public interest? Is the lack of political engagement by the silent majority a sign of apathy, complacency, or stupidity?

Can we have a reasonable, albeit ideologically diverse, dialog about the real issues facing our democracy, be they national security, health care, economic prosperity, or energy? I sure hope so….although I am afraid we are free-sliding on this side of the ocean as well.

SimTV: an I/ITSEC 2009 preview

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We all need a shot of courage - North Andover, MA - North Andover Citizen

We all need a shot of courage - North Andover, MA - North Andover Citizen

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Harvard's Gold Bars

A bit more about those elite schools up here in the North East. Today is the graduation for Class 2009 at Harvard, a school widely considered to have the most "gold" and prestige. One thing it does not have a lot of are Gold Bars; as in those of graduating second lieutenants.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the graduating class will include seven (7) newly commissioned officers for our nation's military; four Army and three Marines. As you may know, Harvard does not have an ROTC program and these cadets had to fulfill their military training at MIT. But of these seven brave and dedicated young people, I happen to know one. She is the daughter of a former classmate and squadron mate of mine; a fellow Dutch fighter pilot who now works for American Airlines and his wife, a former USAF nurse. Mark and I both met our future wives at pilot training, in the days when the US Air Force was smart enough to send its newly-minted gold bars serving in the medical corps to a training base in Texas filled with eager young pilots from the US and a handful of European countries. As joint spouse assignments a not the norm between countries, most of these unions either disbanded or resulted in one of the parties enjoying a short military career.

Mark and Karen's daughter was the first-born out of these international weddings and she is the first to graduate from college. We got her graduation announcements a couple of weeks ago in the mail and she is following in a proud tradition of service, being the first to begin her service in the US Army. Pretty neat! But first and foremost, our "thanks" for your commitment to our safety and security. Congratulations, stay safe, and be well!!